000
FXUS61 KCLE 310737
AFDCLE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
337 AM EDT SAT JUL 31 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST AS A WEAK SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK FROM MISSOURI ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY AND TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS BY TONIGHT.
EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD OVERHEAD...BUT OVERALL THROUGH THE COLUMN
MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST FLOW...A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY.
THERE/S SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH IF ANY THUNDER WILL TAKE
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. FORECASTED INSTABILITY IS VERY
LIMITED...BUT OVERNIGHT THUNDER UPSTREAM SHOWS BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL BE WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. STILL THOUGH THE BETTER THUNDER
CHANCES WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA CLOSER TO THE BETTER LIFT WITH
THE SURFACE FEATURES. WILL GO WITH ISOLATED THUNDER WORDING. HIGH
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE CLOSE TO NORMALS WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER
ESPECIALLY THE FIRST HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A BIT OF A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY COMBINED WITH ANOTHER MINOR SHORTWAVE IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL NOT ALLOW THE CHANCE FOR PRECIP TO GO TO ZERO. WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POP INTO SUNDAY. GFS AND
NAM ARE MORE DEFINED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE AREA
SUNDAY AND THE ECMWF WEAKER. AGAIN THOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
LIMITED. WITH PARTLY CLOUD SKIES TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA MONDAY WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
BECOMING MORE DOMINANT ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THE WRN RIDGE/ ERN
TROUGH PATTERN BECOMES LESS AMPLIFIED GOING INTO MID WEEK. TEMPS
WILL WARM AND COME UP A FEW DEGREES...BUT ONLY ATTEMPT TO FLIRT
WITH 90...COOLER THAN PAST WARM-UPS WHERE TEMPS EASILY GOT INTO
THE LOWER 90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOLLOWED THE GFS TRENDS FOR THE LONG TERM BEGINNING WEDNESDAY. EARLY
IN THE WEEK...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
CANADA.  BY WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE
POISED JUST TO OUR NORTHWEST AND DURING THE DAY WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE FRONT WILL STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN OR CENTRAL OHIO
AND WEAKEN/DISSIPATE LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. WILL HAVE CHANCE POPS
FOR THE AREA WEDNESDAY FOR THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY SHOULD BE DRY. TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL WITH LOW TO MID 80S
FOR HIGHS AND LOWER/MID 60S FOR LOWS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM IOWA TO NEAR LOUISVILLE KY THROUGH 00Z
SUN IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA IN THE
FORM OF VFR BKN TO OVC DECKS LARGELY FROM 5 TO 10 THOUSAND FEET
AND SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS...THE TIMING OF WHICH WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN. EITHER WAY THE PREDOMINANT CONDITION
SHOULD REMAIN VFR. MODELS DO SHOW A DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVING INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NW AFTER 18Z SO WILL BRING SHOWERS INTO THE
FORECAST AFTER THAT TIME. AFTERNOON HEATING WILL ALSO HELP TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS. SHOWERS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN
INTO SWRN LWR MI COULD REACH INTO NWRN OHIO EARLY IN THE PERIOD SO
WILL ALSO HAVE A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE NW BEFORE DAWN.

.OUTLOOK...MVFR POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN CONVECTION.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON THE LAKE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY
WHICH SHOULD BRING WAVES UP TO 2 TO 4 FEET ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE FETCH. OTHERWISE IT SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY QUIET ON THE
LAKE WITH THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES...AND THEN MOVES ACROSS THE
LAKE.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...OUDEMAN
NEAR TERM...OUDEMAN
SHORT TERM...OUDEMAN
LONG TERM...TK
AVIATION...TK
MARINE...TK

NWS CLE Office Area Forecast Discussion